Research by UNSW's Professor Jason Evans, highlighted by the ABC, indicates climate change is increasing extreme rainfall intensity while potentially reducing average rainfall.
Research by UNSW's Professor Jason Evans, highlighted by the ABC, indicates climate change is increasing extreme rainfall intensity while potentially reducing average rainfall. The January 2026 Great Ocean Road floods, where 180mm of rain fell in six hours near Lorne, exemplify these "fast and furious" deluges that overwhelm infrastructure. The short duration (less than an hour) rapid rain bursts are already increasing faster than longer durations on the east coast of Australia. Read the full analysis at ABC News.
Furthermore, Evans’s work indicates that the relationship between extreme rainfall and flood risk is complex, as flooding depends heavily on local factors like soil moisture. While extreme, rare flood events are projected to increase along the coast, Evans notes "deep uncertainty" in predicting the exact magnitude of future floods, as climate shifts interact with specific, localized physical environments.